International Report Forecasts Cost Declines as Chinese Industry Accelerates Commercialization, Forging a New “Lithium-Sodium Complementarity” Landscape

December 2, 2025 — As the global energy transition enters a critical phase, an industrial shift centered on next-generation energy storage technology is accelerating. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) recently released a report predicting that the manufacturing cost of sodium-ion batteries could fall to a key range of around $40 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) upon achieving scale. This projection aligns with tangible industry momentum—today, DF brand, under the Camel Group, officially launched its line of low-voltage sodium batteries targeting the automotive start-stop battery market.

This is not an isolated development. Coinciding with the report’s release, Suining City in China hosted an industry forum focused on “Sodium Battery Technology Breakthroughs and Industrialization Pace.” Local government officials explicitly stated their intention to leverage existing lithium-ion battery supply chain advantages to build a new development model characterized by “lithium-sodium synergy and dual-battery parallel development.” From the long-term perspective of an international agency to the product launches by domestic companies and the industrial planning of local governments, multiple signals indicate that sodium-ion battery technology is striding from laboratories and pilot projects into a new phase of scaled commercial application.

The Dual Logic of Cost and Resources

IRENA’s report provides a solid foundation for the cost advantage of sodium batteries. Its core logic is built upon a vast difference in resource endowment: sodium’s abundance in the Earth’s crust is approximately 1,000 times that of lithium, and in the oceans, it is about 60,000 times greater. This is reflected in raw material prices: from 2020 to 2024, the price of sodium carbonate remained stable between $100 and $500 per ton, while lithium carbonate prices fluctuated wildly between $6,000 and $83,000 per ton. This fundamental disparity in resources and costs positions sodium batteries as a crucial option for alleviating lithium supply pressure and diversifying battery technology pathways.

Beyond raw materials, sodium batteries also possess cost-reduction potential in production. For instance, cheaper aluminum foil can be used for the anode current collector instead of the copper foil used in lithium batteries, and cathode materials can utilize abundant elements like iron and manganese. IRENA notes that sodium battery technology is still in its early stages of development, suggesting significant potential for further cost reduction through technological advancements and economies of scale.

Industrialization Process Gains Full Momentum

Cost expectations are rapidly translating into industrial action. According to the latest developments within China’s industry, the commercialization of sodium batteries is advancing along two clear paths:

1. Replacement of Traditional Batteries: The launch of DF’s low-voltage sodium batteries marks the entry of sodium technology into the mature lead-acid battery market. The product emphasizes adaptability to high and low temperatures (operating range -20°C to 80°C), ultra-long cycle life, and is designed with interfaces identical to existing lead-acid batteries for “hassle-free replacement.” Industry analysis points out that in cost-sensitive scenarios requiring high safety, such as automotive start-stop systems and electric two-wheelers, sodium batteries are demonstrating potential to replace lead-acid and some lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.
2. Forming Complementarity with Lithium Batteries: Sodium batteries with higher energy density are targeting the power and energy storage markets. The prevailing view is that sodium batteries are not meant to completely replace lithium batteries, which have become “versatile mainstream” technology, but to form a “lithium-sodium complementarity” ecosystem. In energy storage, lithium batteries can leverage their rapid response and high efficiency for frequency regulation, while sodium batteries, with their cost, safety, and wide-temperature performance advantages, are better suited for long-duration peak shaving. In the new energy vehicle sector, CATL announced that its second-generation sodium-ion battery “Na Xin” entered mass production in April 2025, with plans to commence shipments for passenger vehicle power batteries in December. Companies like HiNa Battery have also introduced sodium battery solutions for commercial vehicles.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite promising prospects, the path to sodium battery industrialization faces practical challenges. The most significant current constraint remains cost. Due to an immature supply chain and limited production scale, the cell cost of sodium batteries currently generally remains higher than that of LFP batteries. IRENA’s report also acknowledges that falling lithium prices introduce uncertainty regarding the long-term competitiveness of sodium batteries, with their future market penetration subject to considerable variation.

In response, the industry consensus is to focus efforts on “improving performance and reducing costs.” Leading companies like CATL plan to achieve large-scale production of sodium batteries by 2027. HiNa Battery estimates that within the next 1 to 2 years, the theoretical cost of sodium cells could drop to around 0.3 RMB/Wh (approximately 4.2 US cents/Wh). Policy support is also evident; a guideline jointly issued by multiple Chinese ministries in 2025 explicitly listed sodium batteries as key equipment requiring development.

IRENA concludes that the long-term success of sodium batteries will depend on multiple factors, including cost, material availability, and the cost evolution of lithium batteries themselves. It is foreseeable that, driven by the dual imperatives of energy security and cost reduction, sodium-ion batteries—supported by their resource and technological logic—will develop synergistically with lithium batteries, jointly building a more resilient, diversified, and sustainable new global energy storage landscape.