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Netherlands Targets 79.9 GW Solar Capacity by 2035 Amid Policy Shifts and Grid Challenges

Amsterdam, November 18, 2025— The Netherlands is poised to cement its position as a European solar leader with a revised forecast projecting 79.9 GW of installed solar capacity by 2035, up from earlier estimates of 75 GW. This ambitious target, driven by accelerated policy reforms and private-sector investments, positions the country to meet over 30% of its electricity demand through solar energy within a decade.

Growth Trajectory: From Incremental Gains to Industrial Scaling​

According to GlobalData, a London-based energy consultancy, the Netherlands will add 4.7 GW of solar capacity in 2025, bringing its cumulative total to 33.3 GW. By 2026, annual installations are projected to peak at 5.4 GW, stabilizing at 4.5–5 GW/year​ through 2035. This trajectory aligns with the government’s goal to derive 70% of electricity from renewables by 2030, with solar contributing over 60% of that output.
Key milestones include:
  • 2029: Surpassing 50 GW​ of solar capacity.
  • 2034: Crossing the 75 GW threshold.
  • 2035: Approaching 80 GW, enough to power 25 million households annually.
The Solar Power Research Institute (SPRINT)​ highlights that this growth is underpinned by distributed generation models, where residential and commercial rooftops account for 65% of installations—a strategy critical given the country’s limited land availability.

Policy Drivers: From Subsidies to Market Mechanisms​

The Dutch government has overhauled its incentive framework to align with EU market reforms:
  1. SDE++ to CfD Transition: The Stimulering Duurzame Energieproductie (SDE++)​ subsidy program, which allocated €115 billion for renewable projects in 2024, is being phased out in favor of bidirectional power price contracts (CfDs). This shift aims to stabilize returns for developers while reducing fiscal burdens.
  2. Accelerated Permitting: Amendments to the Environmental Decreein September 2024 reduced approval times for high-voltage (21 kV+) grid projects from 18 to 9 months, addressing a historical bottleneck.
  3. Grid Modernization: TenneT, the national grid operator, has launched a €2.1 billion plan​ to reinforce interconnections and integrate smart inverters, mitigating congestion risks in the Dutch “energy island” region.

Market Dynamics: Balancing Ambition with Challenges​

While growth projections are bullish, the sector faces persistent hurdles:
  • Grid Congestion: Despite upgrades, localized bottlenecks in Flevoland and Groningen could delay 1.2 GW of projects in 2025 alone.
  • Negative Pricing: Intermittent solar surpluses have triggered negative tariffs​ (as low as -€0.05/kWh) in off-peak hours, eroding project economics.
  • Storage Gaps: Only 12% of new solar projects​ include battery storage, lagging behind Germany’s 35% adoption rate.
Industry leaders advocate for mandatory storage mandates​ and expanded use of agri-PV​ (agrivoltaics) to address land scarcity. Pilot projects like Solarfields’ floating PV arrays​ on the IJsselmeer demonstrate how dual-use systems can boost land productivity by 40%.

Industrial and Regional Implications​

The solar boom is restructuring the Netherlands energy economy:
  • Manufacturing Resurgence: The Solar NL initiative, to promote domestic production, is receiving funding of €898 million from the state. Firms such as Solarge​ and Exasun​​ are producing bifacial panels that have an ambition of 23% efficiency, and aiming to sell them in export markets like Scandinavia and UK.
  • Job Growth: It is estimated that solar employment will reach 28,000 jobs by 2030, particularly engineering and grid maintenance.
  • Regional Equity: Provinces to the north, like Drenthe, that have depended on coal historically, will be expected to supply 45% of their power from solar​ by 2035, helping to address regional energy imbalance.

Long-Term Vision: Beyond 2035​

In the future, the Climate Agreement 2050​ proposes a path to 180 GW of solar capacity​ by 2050, which would be the equivalent of covering 10% of the country’s land area with panels. To realize these goals, it will require:
  • Offshore Solar Integration: Projects off the North Sea, combining floating solar and offshore wind farms, could produce 5 GW of power by 2040.
  • Cross-Border Collaboration: Partnership projects with Belgium and Germany to establish a North Sea Solar Belt by exploiting existing grid infrastructures.

Conclusion: A Model for Compact Nations​

The Netherlands’ solar strategy offers lessons for high-density economies worldwide. By prioritizing policy agility, distributed generation, and cross-sector innovation, the country is proving that even land-constrained nations can achieve energy independence. As Mohammed Ziauddin, GlobalData’s power analyst, notes: “This isn’t just about hitting a target—it’s about redefining what’s possible in the energy transition.”
For stakeholders, the opportunity lies in aligning with this vision: from storage solution providers targeting grid stability to agri-PV firms pioneering land-efficient models, the Dutch solar ecosystem promises to be a catalyst for global innovation.
Post time: Nov-19-2025
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